By: Mike Patt
Original Date: 7/1/24
Hello sports fans, and welcome back to the IE Sports Radio Blog. We have reached the half-way mark in the 2024 MLB season, which means the All-Star break is right around the corner. Not long after that, we have the trade deadline, which falls on July 30th this year. Analysts and enthusiasts have been projecting major trades for some time now. Heck, some fans have been predicting trades since the start if the season. This is a time-honored tradition for fans of teams that traditionally find themselves trading away good players, or “selling”, at the deadline.
This year’s deadline figures to be quite interesting for a few reasons. Reason #1 – There is a near universal need for pitching, both starters and relievers/closers. Reason #2 – Some of the teams that figure to be buyers (one of which we will discuss below) have quality assets that could lead to bidding wars for the top available players. Reason #3 – More teams than usual, particularly in the National League, find themselves in contention for at least a playoff spot at this stage. Some of the third reason will work itself out over the next month, but some squads (including another we will discuss below) will be faced with tough decisions about buying or selling. As I am the host of the DMV show, let’s take a look at how our DMV squads are shaping up for the deadline.
Baltimore Orioles:
Contenders? – Definitely
Buyers or Sellers? – Buyers
Biggest Needs – #2/3 Starter, High-Leverage Reliever/Closer
The Orioles have emerged from a rough June schedule as one of the top teams in the AL. The offense has incredible power, and the combination of youth and experience among the position players is working really well. However, injuries have decimated the pitching staff. Three pitchers are done for the season, another starter has missed significant time (but cross your fingers that he will be back soon), and key reliever Danny Coulombe is out until September. Keep in mind this group was already going to be without closer Felix Bautista for 2024. Several players have made valiant contributions, but the group as a whole has been inconsistent, and the bullpen has lost more games than you would expect for a team 22 games above .500.
Now I am not on the bandwagon that some fans on social media are, saying that the team needs multiple starters AND multiple relievers. I would rather GM Mike Elias focus on quality over quantity, and the right two guys would get the job done. Specifically, the Orioles need a top three pitcher to go along with Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez and a reliever who can handle close games. The question is going to come with the cost. In order to go after the top pitchers on the market, teams are going to have to give up premium prospects. Bullpen options are cheaper, but in the quality over quantity discussion, the cost is still going to be high for the top arms.
As much as it will pain Os fans to hear, prospects Kyle Stowers and Conor Norby are likely pieces in these deals. Additionally, it looks like C Samuel Basallo is going to be the centerpiece offering for the team to make a run at a top starter. Another key is going to be selling team’s asking price. Last year, a major hold-up for Baltimore at the deadline was the notion that everyone wanted top prospect Jackson Holliday included in their trade. If that is the case again, the Orioles may have a difficult time negotiating, especially if others are willing to part ways with their top prospects.
Washington Nationals:
Contenders? – Realistically, No, but it’s not Definitive
Buyers or Sellers? – Logically Sellers
Assets to Sell – SP Trevor Williams, RPs Hunter Harvey, Dylan Floro, Kyle Finnegan, OF/DH Jesse Winker
A recent losing streak has dropped the Nats from holding a wild card spot to now four games behind St. Louis for the final NL playoff spot. We cannot just overlook the fact that Washington is within striking distance of the post-season. Lane Thomas has returned from injury and provided a spark to the line-up. The team is calling up top prospect James Wood on July 1st, and who knows what level impact the 6’7 power hitting OF will have. This team reminds me a lot of the 2022 Orioles. The pieces are exciting, and its great to see the team finding some success, but selling now to continue building (much like Baltimore did at the 2022 deadline) is the wise decision.
There are other names I could have included, with Thomas being a possibility if the offer is right. All of these players are 29 or older and in the last year of their contract. Rebuilding teams rarely pour a lot of money into aging veterans, so it makes sense for the team to move them for pieces while they still have them. The only downside is they would be considered “rentals” and therefor not get as great a return. Williams is coming back from injury, so teams will need to see him in action before making offers. Harvey, Floro, and Finnegan could all provide help to a contender’s bullpen, and Winker would be a nice addition as a DH/OF with some power who can get on base.
The real question becomes what return can the Nationals expect. Williams would probably fetch multiple good prospects, possibly even one of a teams top ten if healthy. Relievers won’t get as much of a return, although with the way Finnegan has been pitching, a team could give up more than you would expect. There is the option that Washington packages together a couple of guys in order to get a better singular return, much like in 2021 when they traded Trea Turner and Max Scherzer to the Dodgers. Could we see a team like the Orioles offer a high end piece for Finnegan and Floro? It’s not off the table. Winker would probably fetch mid-tier prospects in return.
If the Nationals went on a hot streak and decided to try to be buyers, they would have to balance keeping their core young prospects in the system with acquiring the pieces needed to truly contend. They would need help at first base with a middle order power bat, and possibly need a third baseman on a shorter deal who can upgrade over Nick Senzel/Ildemaro Vargas. I doubt this will happen, but you never know. Be sure to tune in to all of our shows on IESR, as well as the live calls on our partner station USRN. Shout out to sponsors Planet Jerky and Seal the Deal Wax Stamps, as well as all you loyal listeners that continue to help our network grow. Thank you for reading, and we will see you next time on IE Sports Radio; your direct feed for ALL that is sports.
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