By: Mike Patt
original Date: 4/12/24
Hello sports fans, and welcome back to the IE Sports Radio blog. The first round of the NFL draft is two weeks away (exactly, as a matter of fact). Rumors have been swirling for weeks about who likes who and where the top prospects will go. There has been lots of discussion about trades, however, not many trades involving high picks have been made. In fact, the only trade including a first round selection that has occurred this off-season is the Minnesota Vikings trading several picks to the Houston Texans in order to acquire the 23rd overall pick. Plenty of later round picks have been traded, and those are important. At the top, simply no action has happened…yet.
Before we dive in on where the action could occur, let’s take a look at some known facts regarding this draft. This is a very strong class at three key position groups; QB, WR and OT. That’s not to say there aren’t other good groups, but these three positions will dominate the first round. I have seen mock drafts with two thirds of the first round being among these groups…including my own. These are also positions that teams are willing to trade up for, and pay a premium to do so. If you look back through the history of draft trades, you can see many involving teams leaping at the chance to get their franchise QB, and many involving multiple quality picks. This year will be no different, but its just as much about where teams land in the order as it is about the prospects.
The top three teams in the draft order (Chicago, Washington, and New England) all traded away young signal-callers this off-season, and did not take a pro-active approach to replace them. This would indicate that their selections will be QBs, specifically three of Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, and JJ McCarthy. One of those four will remain after those picks, which is where the intrigue begins. The next few teams could very well stay where they are, but you cannot undervalue the need for teams to find their franchise leader and the price they are willing to pay. Without further adieu, let’s look at where we might see trades in the 2024 NFL draft.
Picks 4-6:
With the top three picks likely locked in as QBs, things begin to get interesting a four. Not only will there be at least one highly rated QB remaining, but a group of potential #1 receivers and an elite OT prospect will be available. The price of a trade-up begins to come down, making this an appealing spot for teams in the early to mid-teens. However, there is plenty of reason for Arizona, LA Chargers, and NY Giants to stay put and take the best player available. Heck, we could follow three QBs with three WRs. That is what makes this range the real beginning of the draft.
Arizona has the ideal trade up spot at #4, but they also have plenty of draft capital and do not necessarily need more. If WR Marvin Harrison Jr. is still on the board, I would be very surprised if they move back. The Chargers are the most likely to move back. They have a major need at receiver, but the roster as a whole is rough. They could use extra picks to do a quick rebuild around Justin Herbert. New York is fascinating. They could go several directions if they stay put, and are almost as likely to move up as they are to trade back. With Tennessee in the hunt for an OT at #7, the Giants #6 pick is the target for teams looking to jump the Titans and secure Joe Alt.
Picks 9-14:
This range is less about the prospects and more about the teams. Its a perfect example of symmetry. You have three teams in Chicago (#9), NY Jets (#10) and New Orleans (#14) that are short on picks and would be happy to trade back for more capital. Then, you have three teams in Minnesota (#11), Denver (#12), and Las Vegas (#13) that have at least one major need that would be worth trading up for. Minnesota also has an extra first round pick, which is added ammo for a move. There will be activity in this range, its just a question of who and where they need to go to achieve their goals. My money is on Chicago, Minnesota, and New Orleans to start the movement.
Early-Mid 20s:
There are several components that factor into this portion of the first round. For one, you have three teams in Pittsburgh (#20), Philadelphia (#22), and Green Bay (#25) that are usually active on draft night. They could move up, down, sideways, backwards, and forwards. You have Minnesota at 23 who is likely to package that pick as part of a trade earlier in the evening. Dallas sits at 24 with a need for offensive line help. While they are not as likely to move, you could see a lot of action from teams trying to jump ahead of them to get in on the OL market. Then there is Miami at 21. Miami lacks mid-round assets, and does not have a need that screams stay here. This could be the spot for a team early in the 2nd round with excess picks to make a leap (Commanders?).
There is usually a little action in the late first with teams jumping up from the beginning of the second round. The advantage is that they get a better prospect on a reasonable rookie contract with a fifth year options. The teams trading back get to save a little money and add more mid-late round picks. Teams in this range made deep playoff runs, so adding affordable depth from the later in the draft is appealing. However, those picking in the late 20s to the Chiefs at 32 have at least one first round need, so I am not confident much movement will happen. It’s always random. so you never can truly count this out.
After the first, it’s a crap shoot predicting where trades will happen (similar to how it is predicting second round picks). There could be many trades throughout the rest of the draft, or it could be quiet. One thing is for sure, there WILL be trades, and I am excited to see when they occur and who/what they entail. Tune in to Let’s Wine about DMV Sports, hosted by Mike Patt, on Fridays at 9PM EST/6PM PST. Be sure to check out all of our shows throughout the week on IESR, as well as the live calls on our partner station USRN. Shout out to our sponsors, Planet Jerky and Seal the Deal Wax Stamps, and all you loyal viewers that continue to help our network grow. Thank you for reading, and we will see you next time on IE Sports Radio; your direct feed for ALL that is sports.
